The Diffusion of Innovation (of Ideas) theory, popularized by communication studies professor, Everett Rogers, is the theory about how and why innovations gain popularity and why they never reach 100% of the market share. Rogers defines 5 key elements involved in the process of diffusion; the innovation itself, the adopters, the communication channel, time, and the social system. The innovation, a term left broad on purpose, is what is being observed. It can mean an invention, an idea, a practice, anything that can be seen as new to someone and able to be studied. The adapters are the individuals who are adopting the innovation. Communication channel refers to how individuals create and share information with each other.
Time is important, rarely is anything adopted overnight. It takes time for new ideas to grow and become popular. Lastly, diffusion occurs within a social system, the structure of the system greatly affects how the innovation will be adopted.
Along with the 5 stages of diffusion are the 5 stages of the adoption process, or the life cycle any innovation will go through.
Innovators are the very first few who hop to a new innovation. They are seen as venturesome and daring, but also have to accept the occasional setback that may occur at the beginning of the innovation's life cycle. Innovators are also the most important in the adoption process because they are the ones who start communicating about the innovation.
Early Adopters are the next bunch of people who join in on the innovation and are seen as respectable. Not joining too soon, but late enough to know it was a good choice. The early adopter is considered by many as "the individual to check with" before using a new idea.
After some time, the Early Majority joined. These people adopt the innovation just before the average person will. The Early Majority provides an important link from the very early adopters to the very late. The Late Majority adopt the innovation just after the average person. This group of people are typically very skeptical about the innovation and are likely pressured into it by others in their social system.
The very last people to adopt the innovation are the Laggards. This group is very conservative, tends to stay traditional, and avoids change. Also in this group are the people who choose to never adapt to the innovation.
This theory can be applied to just about any invention, idea, or practice. Take, for example, Netflix. The innovators are the few who started renting movies as soon as they launched in 1998. The Early Adopters are those in 1999 who started renting movies when Netflix announced its subscription plan model. In 2007, when Netflix allowed subscribers to stream movies straight to their computers, is when the Early Majority bought subscriptions.
Somewhere around 2013, when Blockbuster announced it was to be closing all stores, is when the Late Majority subscribed to Netflix. Finally, around 2017 and onward, when Netflix surpassed 100 million subscribers is when the Laggards subscribed.
Each of these years was an important one for Netflix and each saw a significant number of new subscribers. Netflix is far and away the largest video streaming service, with 50 million subscribers more than even the runner-up. Like everything, however, it isn't used by everyone, primarily because of competition. Netflix has around 200 million subscribers, Amazon Prime Video follows with 150 million and Disney+ is next with roughly 100 million.
If it wasn't for these competitors Netflix would for sure have more subscribers. Even still, Netflix still wouldn't have complete market share because no matter the product, innovation, or idea, it is impossible to grab everyone's attention. As time goes on, more and more people are coming to see the value and joy of Netflix and streaming services alike, as evident by the ever-increasing new subscribers and new services being available.
https://extensionaus.com.au/extension-practice/diffusion-of-innovations-theory-adoption-and-diffusion/
https://teddykw2.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/everett-m-rogers-diffusion-of-innovations.pdf